Rent or Buy in Phoenix?

Phoenix is one of the most debated housing markets in the country right now, and for good reason. The metro saw some of the most extreme price appreciation during 2020–2022 — median home prices nearly doubled in under three years — followed by a correction that left many buyers who purchased at peak still underwater. That history matters when you're deciding whether to rent or buy today, because it speaks directly to the risk profile of ownership in a market this volatile.

Maricopa County's property tax rate sits around 0.6% of assessed value, one of the lowest in the Sun Belt. On a $400,000 home, that's roughly $2,400 per year — about $200 per month — which meaningfully lowers the true cost of ownership compared to higher-tax metros. Arizona also has no estate tax and relatively modest income taxes, making it a financially attractive state for long-term wealth building through real estate.

The rental market in Phoenix has softened noticeably since 2022. A two-bedroom apartment in Scottsdale or Tempe that was renting for $2,200 in 2022 can often be found for $1,800–$2,000 today, as a wave of new apartment construction has added supply. That softening makes the rent-vs-buy math more nuanced: renting is genuinely cheaper on a monthly basis for most Phoenix households right now, but the question is whether you're willing to bet that home prices won't resume their upward trajectory.

Long-term, Phoenix's fundamentals remain strong. Population growth continues, driven by retirees, remote workers, and corporate relocations from California. The break-even point for buyers in Phoenix currently falls around five to seven years, depending on your mortgage rate and down payment. The calculator below uses current Phoenix median prices and Maricopa County tax rates to give you a personalized answer.